OpenAI Rules the Changes But Meta Changes the Rules

An analysis of Meta’s master plan and OpenAI’s masterpiece

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Meta has put the entire AI startup ecosystem against the ropes. They’ve released the two smaller versions of the Llama 3 family (8B and 70B-parameter dense models) and have given us a glimpse at the large version, a 405B dense model that although still training, is already showing GPT-4-level eval scores. Critically, Llama 3 is open access. A GPT-4-class model that’s available for anyone is, ironically, OpenAI’s primary threat as the leader of an industry that’s barely turning a profit and whose members’ entire business model is selling access to private models via API. It seems there was never a moat, but, if there was any, it surely wasn’t theirs.

I focus this analysis on a “Meta vs OpenAI” dichotomy because, let’s be honest, most OpenAI-type startups, the likes of Mistral and Cohere, never stood a chance. It’s OpenAI who’s ruling the changes and deciding the direction. I acknowledge the framing is somewhat forced anyway because Google and Anthropic are worthy rivals. They’re however each playing their own game, compromised by their circumstances.